Institute of Petroleum Engineering

Uncertainty Project. Phase IV.


The Heriot-Watt Uncertainty Project is an Industry JIP that develops practical techniques to quantify uncertainty in reservoir engineering and reservoir management. The Uncertainty Project has run for the last 6 years in two Phases: Phase I ran from March 2002 to February 2005, and Phase II ran from March 2005 to June 2008 (the extra 4 months is due to an additional company joining part way through the project). Phase III of the project commenced in June 2009.

The high-level aim of the project is to develop practical techniques for quantifying uncertainty in reservoir model history matching and performance prediction using production data and realistic description of uncertainty in reservoir geomodel.

Structure of Phase IV

In Phase I, Uncertainty and Upscaling were separate but linked modules. In Phase II Uncertainty was the core module, with Geological Parameterisation and Rescaling as an additional module. Because the concepts in Geological Parameterisation and Rescaling have proved successful in the last phase, we see that geological realism will play an increasing role in Phase III, and we propose to merge the two modules to create a larger and unified project for Phase III. This proposal received support from the sponsoring companies’ representatives in the May 2007 SGM.