The goal of this industry sponsored project is to develop practical methods to quantify uncertainty in reservoir performance forecasting.
The approach we are developing is to construct multiple models matching known reservoir performance data (rates, pressures etc) which are also consistent with prior geological beliefs. Because our knowledge of the reservoir properties is from a limited set of sample points, there will always be multiple reservoir models consistent with our knowledge, and our reservoir model predictions will be uncertain.
Figure 3 shows an example set of results. We history matched the first 300 days of production from a reservoir model, and then predicted both the maximum likelihood production and the associated uncertainty. The true production is then compared with the maximum likelihood prediction as well as with the uncertainty bounds.