Research theme: Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty Quantification

Theme lead: Prof. Mike Christie

Research project

• Uncertainty quantification

The Uncertainty Quantification Group carries out research in calibrating models to data and forecasting uncertainty in production of oil and gas. The group has attracted significant levels of funding from EPSRC and international oil companies for fundamental and applied research.

The main advances have been:

1. application of novel stochastic sampling techniques to calibrate models to data;
2. development (EPSRC funded) of solution error modelling techniques to improve accuracy of low resolution computer models; and
3. uncertain forecasting on real field examples.

The solution error modelling is extremely novel (only two other groups worldwide carry out similar research) and demonstrates that correction for bias in coarse models is possible in many cases.